Texas · ERCOT Risk
Texas Energy Risk, by Zone and County
ERCOT prices risk at the hub and load-zone level. Select a zone — or a county within it — to see the composite risk score, what moved this week, and whether the signal favors locking, waiting, or evaluating a structured product.
Click a region — or a county marker — to explore ERCOT risk.
ERCOT North (LZ_NORTH)
Updated Jul 29, 2026
Composite risk score
Week over week
-2 pts
Recommended Posture
Wait
Lock Signal
36
Wait Signal
64
Confidence
55
Lock signal 36 vs wait 64 (confidence 55). Easing signals make waiting reasonable while the picture clarifies.
Component breakdown
Forward curve risk
22
25%
Weather risk
88
20%
Congestion risk
34
20%
Gas risk
12
15%
Reserve margin risk
7
10%
Load growth risk
60
10%
Regional summary
North-zone composite risk eased week-over-week to 39 (moderate). The signal favors waiting.
Drivers
Weather · high impact
Weather higher week-over-week (88/100).
Congestion · medium impact
Congestion lower week-over-week (34/100).
Forward curve · medium impact
Forward curve lower week-over-week (22/100).
Gas · low impact
Gas steady week-over-week (12/100).
Load growth · medium impact
Load growth steady week-over-week (60/100).
Reserve margin · low impact
Reserve margin steady week-over-week (7/100).
Track record
Track record calibrating — live since Jul 2026.
Measured against realized ERCOT real-time prices since Jul 2026 · reference: real-time proxy — forward-curve grading to come
Methodology
The composite risk score is a weighted blend of six components, scored 0–100 at the ERCOT hub / load-zone level. Higher means more procurement risk. The weights are fixed and shown below for transparency.
Forward curve risk
Direction and firmness of ERCOT forward power prices — real ICE on-peak settlements, refreshed weekly (a modeled heat-rate proxy fills in when stale).
25%
Weather risk
Temperature-driven load and price exposure — statewide NOAA CPC degree-days (identical across zones).
20%
Congestion risk
Transmission constraints and basis widening risk.
20%
Gas risk
Natural-gas price pressure feeding into power costs — Henry Hub spot, applied statewide.
15%
Reserve margin risk
Tightness of available generation versus demand.
10%
Load growth risk
Pace of demand additions raising structural risk.
10%
Total
100%
Turn this signal into a decision.
Upload a bill and Watt Alpha models your position across fixed, index, and block + index structures — so you know whether to lock, wait, or restructure.
Simulate my position→Frequently asked questions
What does the Texas Energy Risk score measure?
The Texas Energy Risk score is a composite 0–100 measure of electricity procurement risk, scored at the ERCOT hub and load-zone level, where higher means more risk. Watt Alpha computes it as a fixed-weight blend of six components — forward curve risk at 25%, weather and congestion at 20% each, gas at 15%, and reserve margin and load growth at 10% each.
Why does electricity procurement risk differ by ERCOT load zone and county?
Electricity procurement risk differs by ERCOT load zone and Texas county because transmission congestion and the pace of local demand additions are regional: a constraint that separates West-zone prices from Houston prices changes what suppliers charge in each place. Watt Alpha scores every zone and county on the same six-component 0–100 scale, so two Texas facilities can carry different risk levels in the same week.
What does a lock-vs-wait signal mean for an electricity contract?
A lock-vs-wait signal converts market risk into a contract decision: lock means current forward prices beat the modeled cost of staying exposed, while wait favors holding exposure open. Watt Alpha's Texas Energy Risk map publishes the signal for each ERCOT region as a 0–100 lock score and wait score, a recommended action — lock, wait, monitor, or evaluate a structured product — and a stated confidence.
How should I read week-over-week change in a Texas energy risk score?
Read the level and the change as two different signals: the level places an ERCOT region on the 0–100 risk scale, while the week-over-week change shows which direction conditions are moving and how fast. A moderate score climbing several points across consecutive weekly refreshes is a stronger prompt to revisit contract timing than a high score that is holding flat.
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Topics · ERCOT, Forward Power Prices, Energy Intelligence, Texas Residential Electricity, Texas Commercial Energy, Provider Risk Grades, Bill Simulation