Texas · ERCOT Risk
Texas Energy Risk, by Zone and County
ERCOT prices risk at the hub and load-zone level. Select a zone — or a county within it — to see the composite risk score, what moved this week, and whether the signal favors locking, waiting, or evaluating a structured product.
Click a region — or a county marker — to explore ERCOT risk.
ERCOT West (LZ_WEST)
Updated Jun 8, 2026
Composite risk score
Week over week
+9 pts
Recommended Posture
Evaluate structured product
Lock Signal
55
Wait Signal
45
Confidence
63
West-zone congestion and load growth are extreme; a block-plus-index structure may manage basis risk better than a single fixed or index decision.
Component breakdown
Forward curve risk
77
25%
Weather risk
70
20%
Congestion risk
88
20%
Gas risk
62
15%
Reserve margin risk
64
10%
Load growth risk
90
10%
Regional summary
West-zone risk is the highest in the state on severe congestion and load growth from electrification. A structured product warrants evaluation versus a binary lock/wait.
Drivers
Congestion · high impact
Permian basis blowouts on constrained transmission.
Load growth · high impact
Oilfield electrification and data-center additions surging.
Forward curve · high impact
West hub strip pricing in persistent constraint risk.
Methodology
The composite risk score is a weighted blend of six components, scored 0–100 at the ERCOT hub / load-zone level. Higher means more procurement risk. The weights are fixed and shown below for transparency.
Forward curve risk
Direction and firmness of ERCOT forward power prices.
25%
Weather risk
Temperature-driven load and price exposure for the zone.
20%
Congestion risk
Transmission constraints and basis widening risk.
20%
Gas risk
Natural-gas price pressure feeding into power costs.
15%
Reserve margin risk
Tightness of available generation versus demand.
10%
Load growth risk
Pace of demand additions raising structural risk.
10%
Total
100%
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