Texas · ERCOT Risk
Texas Energy Risk, by Zone and County
ERCOT prices risk at the load-zone level. Select a zone, or a county within it, to see the composite risk score, what moved over the past week, and whether the signal favors locking, waiting, or evaluating a structured product.
Updated Oct 28, 2026 · refreshed as new market runs are published
Click a region — or a county marker — to explore ERCOT risk.
ERCOT West (LZ_WEST)
Updated Oct 28, 2026
Composite risk score
Week over week
-3 pts
Current signal
Wait
Lock Signal
27
Wait Signal
73
Confidence
24
Lock signal 27 vs wait 73 (confidence 24). Easing signals make waiting reasonable while the picture clarifies.
Component breakdown
Forward curve risk
10
25%
Weather risk
6
20%
Congestion risk
78
20%
Gas risk
26
15%
Reserve margin risk
7
10%
Load growth risk
60
10%
Regional summary
West-zone composite risk eased week-over-week to 30 (moderate). The signal favors waiting.
Drivers
Weather · high impact
Weather lower week-over-week (6/100).
Congestion · high impact
Congestion higher week-over-week (78/100).
Gas · low impact
Gas lower week-over-week (26/100).
Load growth · medium impact
Load growth steady week-over-week (60/100).
Forward curve · low impact
Forward curve steady week-over-week (10/100).
Reserve margin · low impact
Reserve margin steady week-over-week (7/100).
Methodology
The composite risk score is a weighted blend of six components, scored 0 to 100 at the ERCOT load-zone level. Higher means more procurement risk. The weights are fixed and shown below. A component with no current input is left out and the score is computed from the rest.
Forward curve risk
Direction and firmness of ERCOT forward power prices. Uses ICE end-of-day on-peak settlements when a strip from the last 14 days is available. Otherwise it uses a modeled estimate (Henry Hub gas times a seasonal heat rate), which is not a traded price.
25%
Weather risk
Temperature-driven load and price exposure — statewide NOAA CPC degree-days (identical across zones).
20%
Congestion risk
Transmission constraints and basis widening risk.
20%
Gas risk
Natural-gas price pressure feeding into power costs — Henry Hub spot, applied statewide.
15%
Reserve margin risk
Tightness of available generation versus demand.
10%
Load growth risk
Pace of demand additions raising structural risk.
10%
Total
100%
How we check the signal
Each zone’s signal is graded 30 days later against ERCOT real-time prices. A “lock” signal counts as matching if average real-time prices over the next 30 days were higher than over the prior 14 days. A “wait” or “monitor” signal counts as matching if they were lower. This uses real-time prices as a stand-in; grading against forward prices is not built yet.
Signals are produced at least daily, so their 30-day windows overlap and the four zones move together. That means the graded count overstates how many independent checks there have been, and we do not yet compare it with a simple baseline. Until the sample supports it, we do not publish a hit rate as a measure of accuracy.
Raw count since Jul 2026: 238 of 1140 graded signals matched the later price move · overlapping windows · real-time proxy · not a reliable accuracy measure yet
Turn market context into a contract decision.
Upload a business bill and Watt Alpha models fixed, index, and block + index options against your load, so you can see whether to lock, wait, or restructure.
Model my next contract→Frequently asked questions
What does the Texas Energy Risk score measure?
The Texas Energy Risk score is a composite 0–100 measure of electricity procurement risk, scored at the ERCOT hub and load-zone level, where higher means more risk. Watt Alpha computes it as a fixed-weight blend of six components — forward curve risk at 25%, weather and congestion at 20% each, gas at 15%, and reserve margin and load growth at 10% each.
Why does electricity procurement risk differ by ERCOT load zone and county?
Electricity procurement risk differs by ERCOT load zone and Texas county because transmission congestion and the pace of local demand additions are regional: a constraint that separates West-zone prices from Houston prices changes what suppliers charge in each place. Watt Alpha scores every zone and county on the same six-component 0–100 scale, so two Texas facilities can carry different risk levels in the same week.
What does a lock-vs-wait signal mean for an electricity contract?
A lock-vs-wait signal converts market risk into a contract decision: lock means current forward prices beat the modeled cost of staying exposed, while wait favors holding exposure open. Watt Alpha's Texas Energy Risk map publishes the signal for each ERCOT region as a 0–100 lock score and wait score, a recommended action — lock, wait, monitor, or evaluate a structured product — and a stated confidence.
How should I read week-over-week change in a Texas energy risk score?
Read the level and the change as two different signals: the level places an ERCOT region on the 0–100 risk scale, while the week-over-week change shows which direction conditions are moving and how fast. A moderate score climbing several points across consecutive runs is a stronger prompt to revisit contract timing than a high score that is holding flat.
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Topics · ERCOT, Forward Power Prices, Energy Intelligence, Texas Residential Electricity, Texas Commercial Energy, Provider Risk Grades, Compare Plans at Your Usage