ERCOT · Monthly Forward Curve
ERCOT Forward Curve Report — June 2026
Published Jun 1, 2026
Forward power prices firmed across most tenors month-over-month, led by summer-strip strength and persistent West-zone congestion premiums. The curve reflects a market pricing in tighter summer conditions.
Forward curve by tenor
Scenarios
Bull case
A hotter-than-normal summer with low reserves drives repeated scarcity pricing.
Procurement implication
Locking now meaningfully reduces exposure; waiting risks chasing a rising curve.
Base case
Near-normal weather with firm but orderly summer pricing and stable gas.
Procurement implication
Layered coverage balances protection and flexibility for most buyers.
Bear case
Mild summer and soft gas pull the curve lower across tenors.
Procurement implication
Partial index exposure or shorter terms preserve upside if prices ease.
Recommendations by customer type
Office
Favor fixed coverage on the 12-month strip.
Predictable, weekday-weighted load values budget certainty.
Retail
Layer fixed coverage ahead of summer.
Evening peaks overlap with the highest-risk pricing hours.
Warehouse
Consider block-plus-index.
Flatter load can absorb measured index exposure off-peak.
Manufacturing
Lock a base block; index the margin.
High, steady load benefits from securing core coverage.
Data center
Prioritize firm, structured coverage.
Large 24/7 load is highly exposed to scarcity events.
Municipality
Stagger fixed tranches across tenors.
Dollar-cost averaging fits multi-year budget cycles.
Turn this signal into a decision.
Upload a bill and Watt Alpha models your position across fixed, index, and block + index structures — so you know whether to lock, wait, or restructure.
Simulate my position→Frequently asked questions
What is a forward curve in electricity markets?
A forward curve in electricity markets is the set of prices at which power for future delivery months trades today, plotted from the nearest month out to several years. Watt Alpha's monthly ERCOT forward curve report reads that curve by tenor — the contract lengths a Texas business can actually buy — and pairs it with bull, base, and bear scenarios.
Why do forward power prices differ by contract length in ERCOT?
Forward power prices differ by contract length in ERCOT because each tenor averages a different mix of seasons and risk: a term that spans more July and August windows carries more of the summer scarcity premium that ERCOT's heat-driven peaks command. Longer tenors also embed a risk premium for uncertainty further out, so a 36-month price is not simply three 12-month prices averaged.
What do bull, base, and bear scenarios mean in a power price forecast?
In a power price forecast, the base scenario is the expected path for prices, the bull scenario is the upside case where prices run higher — heat, gas strength, tight reserves — and the bear scenario is the downside case where they fall. Watt Alpha's monthly ERCOT forward curve report states all three so a Texas buyer can test a contract against the range, not a single guess.
How does a business use the forward curve to decide when to sign an electricity contract?
A business uses the forward curve to pick both the term and the start date of a Texas electricity contract: when longer tenors price below the near-term curve, extending the term locks the discount, and shifting a start date past a high-priced summer strip can lower the blended rate. Watt Alpha's monthly report pairs the ERCOT curve with recommendations by customer type, from office and retail to data center.
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Topics · ERCOT, Texas Energy Risk, Energy Intelligence, Texas Commercial Energy, Contract Renewal Timing, Texas Electricity Providers, Bill Simulation