ERCOT · Forward Curve
ERCOT Forward Curve Report — October 2026
Published Oct 28, 2026
Modeled estimate: gas price times a seasonal heat rate, not a traded quote
No recent ICE settlement strip is available, so the prices below are a modeled estimate built from the Henry Hub gas price and a seasonal heat rate. They show the likely shape of the curve, not prices anyone has traded at.
Latest modeled forward strip; month-over-month comparison will appear once a real ICE strip is captured.
Estimated forward curve by tenor
Scenarios (illustrative)
Bull case
A hotter-than-normal summer with low reserves drives repeated scarcity pricing.
Procurement implication
Locking now meaningfully reduces exposure; waiting risks chasing a rising curve.
Base case
Near-normal weather with firm but orderly summer pricing and stable gas.
Procurement implication
Layered coverage balances protection and flexibility for most buyers.
Bear case
Mild summer and soft gas pull the curve lower across tenors.
Procurement implication
Partial index exposure or shorter terms preserve upside if prices ease.
General guidance by customer type
Office
Favor fixed coverage on the 12-month strip.
Predictable, weekday-weighted load values budget certainty.
Retail
Layer fixed coverage ahead of summer.
Evening peaks overlap with the highest-risk pricing hours.
Warehouse
Consider block-plus-index.
Flatter load can absorb measured index exposure off-peak.
Manufacturing
Lock a base block; index the margin.
High, steady load benefits from securing core coverage.
Data center
Prioritize firm, structured coverage.
Large 24/7 load is highly exposed to scarcity events.
Municipality
Stagger fixed tranches across tenors.
Dollar-cost averaging fits multi-year budget cycles.
Apply this to your own contract.
Upload a business bill and Watt Alpha models fixed, index, and block + index options against your load, with the data source labelled.
Model my next contract→Frequently asked questions
What is a forward curve in electricity markets?
A forward curve in electricity markets is the set of prices at which power for future delivery months trades today, plotted from the nearest month out to several years. Watt Alpha's ERCOT forward curve report shows that curve by tenor, labels whether it is observed ICE settlement data or a modeled estimate, and pairs it with illustrative scenarios.
Why do forward power prices differ by contract length in ERCOT?
Forward power prices differ by contract length in ERCOT because each tenor averages a different mix of seasons and risk: a term that spans more July and August windows carries more of the summer scarcity premium that ERCOT's heat-driven peaks command. Longer tenors also embed a risk premium for uncertainty further out, so a 36-month price is not simply three 12-month prices averaged.
What do bull, base, and bear scenarios mean in a power price forecast?
In a power price forecast, the base scenario is the expected path for prices, the bull scenario is the upside case where prices run higher — heat, gas strength, tight reserves — and the bear scenario is the downside case where they fall. Watt Alpha's ERCOT forward curve report states all three as illustrative cases so a Texas buyer can test a contract against a range, not a single guess.
How does a business use the forward curve to decide when to sign an electricity contract?
A business uses the forward curve to pick both the term and the start date of a Texas electricity contract: when longer tenors price below the near-term curve, extending the term locks the discount, and shifting a start date past a high-priced summer strip can lower the blended rate. Watt Alpha's report pairs the ERCOT curve with general guidance by customer type, from office and retail to data center.
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