ERCOT · Monthly Forward Curve
ERCOT Forward Curve Report — June 2026
Published Jun 1, 2026
Forward power prices firmed across most tenors month-over-month, led by summer-strip strength and persistent West-zone congestion premiums. The curve reflects a market pricing in tighter summer conditions.
Forward curve by tenor
Scenarios
Bull case
A hotter-than-normal summer with low reserves drives repeated scarcity pricing.
Procurement implication
Locking now meaningfully reduces exposure; waiting risks chasing a rising curve.
Base case
Near-normal weather with firm but orderly summer pricing and stable gas.
Procurement implication
Layered coverage balances protection and flexibility for most buyers.
Bear case
Mild summer and soft gas pull the curve lower across tenors.
Procurement implication
Partial index exposure or shorter terms preserve upside if prices ease.
Recommendations by customer type
Office
Favor fixed coverage on the 12-month strip.
Predictable, weekday-weighted load values budget certainty.
Retail
Layer fixed coverage ahead of summer.
Evening peaks overlap with the highest-risk pricing hours.
Warehouse
Consider block-plus-index.
Flatter load can absorb measured index exposure off-peak.
Manufacturing
Lock a base block; index the margin.
High, steady load benefits from securing core coverage.
Data center
Prioritize firm, structured coverage.
Large 24/7 load is highly exposed to scarcity events.
Municipality
Stagger fixed tranches across tenors.
Dollar-cost averaging fits multi-year budget cycles.
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